Performance impacts of ordering and production control policies in the presence of capacity disruptions are studied on the real-life example of a retail supply chain with product perishability considerations. Constraints on product perishability typically result in reductions in safety stock and increases in transportation frequency. Consideration of the production capacity disruption risks may lead to safety stock increases. This trade-off is approached with the help of a simulation model that is used to compare supply chain performance impacts with regard to coordinated and non-coordinated ordering and production control policies. Real data of a fast moving consumer goods company is used to perform simulations and to derive novel managerial insights and practical recommendations on inventory, on-time delivery and service level control. In particular, for the first time, the effect of ‘postponed redundancy’ has been observed. Moreover, a coordinated production–ordering contingency policy in the supply chain within and after the disruption period has been developed and tested to reduce the negative impacts of the ‘postponed redundancy’. The lessons learned from experiments provide evidence that a coordinated policy is advantageous for inventory dynamics stabilization, improvement in on-time delivery, and variation reduction in customer service level.
Among innovative e-learning approaches in the sphere of digital economy and logistics, there is a special focus on artificial intelligence technologies (AI), which, due to their capacity and efficiency in usage, have a significant potential for the development and to some extent are optimal IT tools. The objective of a study is to define an optimum IT software for the organization of massive open online courses (MOOC) in digital economy and digital logistics in the framework of training economics students. Authors have conducted a survey in terms of In-ternet use for education and self-education. The sampling volume makes up 1 600 respondents in at least 80 regions of the Russian Federation. The respondents are divided into four age groups: 18-24 years old, 25-39 years old, 40-54 years old, 55 years old and older. The study uses data from the survey conducted by KMDA.PRO related to digital transformation of 700 representatives from more than 300 Russian companies out of 15 industries and the results of in-depth in-terviews of four categories of employees: top managers, heads of units, mid-level managers and other employees. The study results testify to the need for trans-forming e-learning approaches, taking into account the new labor market re-quirements for training specialists in digital logistics and gaining respective skills such as an active training, coordination, negotiation skills, teaching others, infor-mation literacy, customer focus, oral communication, ability to solve complex is-sues, operational literacy, time management. The use of the research results in practice is possible in case of the organization of online training courses for eco-nomics students in the framework of the higher educational system
The ripple effect refers to structural dynamics and describes a downstream propagation of the downscaling in demand fulfilment in the supply chain (SC) as a result of a severe disruption. The bullwhip effect refers to operational dynamics and amplifies in the upstream direction as ordering oscillations. Being interested in uncovering if the ripple effect can be a driver of the bullwhip effect, we performed a simulation-based study to investigate the interrelations of the structural and operational dynamics in the SC. The results advance our knowledge about both ripple and bullwhip effects and reveal, for the first time, that the ripple effect can be a bullwhip-effect driver, while the latter can be launched by a severe disruption even in the downstream direction. The findings show that the ripple effect influences the bullwhip effect through backlog accumulation over the disruption time as a consequence of non-coordinated ordering and production planning policies. To cope with this effect, a contingent production-inventory control policy is proposed that provides results in favour of information coordination in SC disruption management to mitigate both ripple and bullwhip effects. The SC managers need to take into account the risk of bullwhip effect during the capacity disruption and recovery periods.
In the development of programs for delivering crude oil to Southern Europe, it is necessary to determine the trends in crude oil delivery and production and to analyze the capabilities of the crude oil transportation system. The global trend towards reducing the consumption of non-renewable energy has led to a significant reduction in the number of refineries in Europe. The purpose of this paper was to determine the trends in oil production and delivery and to assess the capacity of the oil transportation systems in Southern Europe. The allocation of crude oil production and delivery facilities in Southern European countries from 2005 to 2015 was analyzed using quantitative evaluation methodology. Changes in European crude oil production and delivery were highlighted. The transport infrastructure potential of oil supplies to consumers and oil production was studied. The study established that from 2013 to 2015, the oil supply to the refineries increased and generated additional stress on the transportation infrastructure. However, European infrastructure capacities had the necessary reserves to operate for the next several years without additional investment. In this paper, aggregate numbers for oil production and delivery are used. In addition, different refineries process different oil types. Nevertheless, the approach designed in this study can be applied to study the supply of certain oil types on the market.
Trends in the digitalization of business open up opportunities for the use of fundamental approaches to the development of enterprise architecture in the creation of appropriate methodologies. The article discusses the approach to the use of adapted Zachman framework for enterprise architecture as a basis for the systematization and structuring of the industry methodology of integrated supply chain planning based on SCOR model. A practical example of using the proposed approach for description of one of the target processes - tactical supply chain planning is considered.
It is concluded that taking into account the ongoing trend in the digitalization of business, including in the field of integrated supply chain planning, the use of an adapted Zachman framework for enterprise architecture allows solving an important scientific and economic problem of systematization and structuring of industry methodologies.
For multi-criteria decisions on choosing counterparty for horizontal cooperation, the article proposes an approach to filtering alternatives before the multucriteria optimization procedures. Filtration is based on the theory of binary relations and is aimed to keep only those alternatives that are majorants of strict order according to a certain particular criterion. The presented filtering procedures allows significant reduction of the number of considered alternatives without decline in quality of the chosen solutions. These procedures are illustrated in the format of the following generalized selection criteria: scalar; ideal point; geometric mean.
It is shown that the concept of «Digital Twin» is becoming an increasingly popular method of solving key problems in supply chain management, in particular, when monitoring logistics business processes. A detailed analysis of literary sources and Internet resources on the subject of digital twins is carried out. The basic terminology, the terms of «Digital Twin» and of similar concepts, such as «digital footprint», «digital shadow», «digital thread», are given. The basic properties (characteristics) of digital twins and the advantages obtained by using this concept in supply chains are considered. The methodological aspects of the Digital Twin concept are analyzed both in the academic environment and in the context of the practice of large companies. It is shown that the problem of monitoring consumer goods can be effectively solved us ing digital counterparts of the FMCG sector supply chains. The main variants of the Supply Chain Digital Twin «design» are presented. An FMCG supply chain monitoring system using convergence of digital twins of products and processes in the chain is proposed. An example of the construction of a monitoring system in the supply chain of GHIOTTONE consumer goods using the digital ounterparts of the main processes represented by the SCOR model is considered.
The article is devoted to the preparation for the digital transformation of the international air cargo terminal, carried out in order to increase the volume of air cargo and mail processed at the airport at the terminal complex. The process of digital transformation is a process of reengineering. It affects all the functional components of the company, without exception, and, first of all, management. It is important to determine in advance what threats the new management brings to the company, what competitive advantages the terminal can potentially gain as a result of digital transformation, what can serve as the basis for successful reengineering, and what management, technological, and technical issues need to be paid special attention to. The article discusses the technological and organizational aspects of the cargo airport, which can serve as a potential basis for successful transformation. The authors discuss in detail the new key business processes of digital service management at the terminal of companies in the Agency and forwarding environment. We consider options for building these processes based on the integration of services of the digital platform of the cargo terminal, the principles of implementing Omni-channel digital management of the processes of organizing air cargo transportation at an international airport
The article examines the synchromodal transportation system with parallel cargo flows provided by different modes. The mathematical model of such a system is used to evaluate the reliability of the information managementnecessary to provide the competitiveness of the system.
When managing procurements and suppliers, one often has to deal with heterogeneous information from various sources, which is not always amenable to formalization, since it can be defined by qualitative characteristics. Under the sanction pressure on the Russian economy, changes in the market trends for the sale of many goods and services are revolutionary in nature, making it difficult to objectively use mathematical statistics and probability theory for business planning purposes. The increase in the share of sales of innovative products with a short life cycle also limit the use of science-based approaches for forecasting the need for supplies. Therefore, issues of improving and standardizing methods of processing and analyzing information that reflects the results of activities of companies in various business sectors are quite relevant. The article discusses the specifics of constructing non-linear dependencies of stock consumption on various environmental factors that can be used in calculating insurance stocks. In addition, the article substantiates the possibility of using mutually and autocorrelation functions when planning the need for supplies, as well as methods of multiple correlation and regression analysis. For the procedures for selecting counterparties in procurement, issues of using rank correlation methods are considered. The conclusions made in the article, methodologically, are based on a systematic approach to the analysis of the relationship between the results of companies and the influence of macro and microeconomic factors. When processing statistical information, econometric methods and models were used as ways to study quantitative and qualitative economic relationships. The results of the calculations carried out in the article show the effectiveness of the proposed stochastic methods that can be actively used in analyzing consumption trends and planning stocks of raw materials, materials, finished products, operational resources in production, trading and logistics companies.
The purpose of the work is to draw attention to the possibility of improving quality making decisions related to the optimization of transport provision of supplies, if they are accepted according to many criteria, and in the conditions of transition to modern digital technologies. Situations are discussed when the format of tasks optimization can cause the impact of a number of undesirable phenomena inadequate choice. Approaches are considered that allow to eliminate the following phenomena: 1) inconsistency of optimization directions for partial criteria; 2) inconsistency in the nature of their indicators; 3) inconsistency order of values of estimates of partial criteria; 4) inconsistency in their format views (e.g., annual figures, figures per shipment, per unit of goods). It is proposed to use the synthesis of procedures in such situations traditional selection criteria with analytical hierarchy processes.
The article presents a special modification of the EOQ formula and its application to the accounting of the cargo capacity factor for the relevant procedures for optimizing deliveries when renting storage facilities. The specified development will allow managers to take into account the following process specifics in the format of a simulated supply chain when managing inventory. First of all, it will allow considering the most important factor of cargo capacity when optimizing stocks. Moreover, this formula will make it possible to find the optimal strategy for the supply of goods if, also, it is necessary to take into account the combined effect of several factors necessary for practice, which will undoubtedly affect decision-making procedures. Here we are talking about the need for additional consideration of the following essential attributes of the simulated cash flow of the supply chain: 1) time value of money; 2) deferral of payment of the cost of the order; 3) pre-agreed allowable delays in the receipt of revenue from goods sold. Developed analysis and optimization procedures have been implemented to models of this type that are interesting and important for a business. This - inventory management systems, the format of which is related to the special concept of efficient supply. We are talking about models where the presence of the specified delays for the outgoing cash flows allows you to pay for the order and the corresponding costs of the supply chain from the corresponding revenue on the re-order interval. Accordingly, the necessary and sufficient conditions are established based on which managers will be able to identify models of the specified type. The purpose of the article is to draw the attention of managers to real opportunities to improve the efficiency of inventory management systems by taking into account these factors for a simulated supply chain.
This article focuses on the mandatory marking issues of footwear. The author describes the advantages of marking goods, including ensuring traceability in the supply chain. The legal framework for marking footwear and the stages of its implementation are considered. The author paid special attention to the marking process of commodity stocks. The author analyzes and classifies the options for marking commodity stocks highlighting their advantages and disadvantages. The need for the operations to stop, the feasibility of separating commodity stocks into marked and unmarked, etc. are the factors to be considered for marking goods. The proposed classification will allow a more flexible approach to the process of marking commodity stocks in the warehouse. Also, the article considers the impact of marking goods at other stages of product processing in the warehouse; highlights and analyses cost items caused by the introduction of goods marking.
Using the example of international road carriers, we consider approaches to assessing the complex indicator of competitiveness. Based on a sample of the performance results of the best transport companies from different countries, a comparison is made, and the factors that influence the change in indicators are determined. The best indicator values are set, which can serve as a guide for international road transportation companies. Based on the analysis of road transport performance indicators in the EEU countries, it was revealed that there are differences in the development of this type of activity, but all countries are characterized by an unsatisfactory state of the vehicle fleet. The change of generations of equipment in road transport is characterized by a short period, which is only 4 years, with an average change of 8-10 years. Problems with updating the car fleet lead to the fact that six generations of vehicles are simultaneously operating on the market. The paper offers a tool for determining the gap at the level of a country or individual enterprise from the market leaders.
The article provides analysis of the main directions and technologies of artificial intelligence and their application in digital supply chains; specifies prospects of intelligent information systems application to improve interorganizational cooperation and participants’ collaboration in integrated and network structures of supply chains. Particular attention is paid to the research of possibilities of modern multi-agent technologies and intelligent systems in supply chain management aimed at interorganizational cooperation of partners, conflict management and consensus reaching between network partners, real time risk management, dynamically reconfigurable network structure formation of supply chains.
In recent years, both in Russia and in the world, there has been an annual increase in the number of museum visitors. The most popular exhibitions are visited by millions of people. In 2020, in the context of quarantine measures caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, the issue of managing the museum's visitors’ flows has become especially acute. If earlier the throughput of museums was limited by the maximum duration of a possible evacuation from the museums building, exhibitions space and the number of employees, who are working with the visitors, then in 2020, due to the observance of sanitary and epidemiological rules, the throughput of museums was further reduced. This determines the relevance of analytical solutions for museums since in order to manage visitor flows and adapt services to high demand, it is necessary to have an effective forecasting model that takes into account the determinism of demand by a number of factors.
The purpose of this paper is to develop a forecasting model for the number of excursion groups in specification museum-day-hour. A modification of random forest with the inclusion of more than 450 independent variables in the model is proposed as a forecasting method. The modification of the model consists in changing the mechanism for combining forecasts of trees in the forest in such a way that the weight of the tree in the model is inversely proportional to the measurement error of this tree. The proposed model is tested on the basis of data on more than 20,000 excursion groups of the State Russian Museum for the period 2018-2020. The proposed model showed high accuracy (36.6% WAPE and 0.5% BIAS).